网红直播不仅保证了强大的互动性和实时反馈，还提高了效率。与电视购物完全不同的是，借助网红强大的可视化能力，网红直播解决了直观体验信息不畅、购物娱乐属性尚未完全线上化的问题。这是从搜索到体验。跨度。那么，网红直播能走多远呢？
关于网红带货，我们的基本观点是网红直播话题十问十答，消除误解，填补盲点
从网红直播解决的根本痛点出发，我们详细分析了网红直播的经济性和长期性，对比了商家自播、网红直播和线上的区别名人直播。还从网红和用户两个维度阐述了各个层次的分布和特点。从消费的角度来看，网红直播形式的品牌、品类、价格的差异也得到了解答。最后回到网红直播的演进过程，对行业进行展望并给出相应的投资建议。
网红直播不仅保证了强大的互动性和实时反馈，还提高了效率。与电视购物完全不同的是，借助网红强大的可视化能力，网红直播解决了直观体验信息不畅、购物娱乐属性尚未完全线上化的问题。这是从搜索到体验。跨度。
除了带货，网红直播本质上是直播。用户的首要需求是消磨时间，所以它必须足够有趣。
影响者因其独特的乐趣而广受欢迎。对于网红来说，电商带货并不是单纯的流量业务，带货组合也是核心竞争力。对于商家来说，网红直播的效果有很多原因，比如爆量、去库存、阿里流量占比等。对于传统电商平台而言，商家自播通常会改造现有的商家资源和用户基础，而网红直播则提供了新用户和新商家的可能。
网红直播的马太效应取决于平台生态。用户以低线城市为主，年龄性别分布全面。平台流量的集中度决定了网红直播的集中度。淘宝直播顶级主播流量聚合效果突出，中小主播流量几乎减半；快手以“优质内容”为导向，中心化程度非常高；快手以“创造者”为导向，中心化程度较低。
从用户的角度来看，淘宝直播以25-35岁的女性为主，而快手直播的男性购买力不容小觑。除了个人消费，女性还可能在家庭消费中扮演决策者的角色。因此，淘宝直播中除了服饰、珠宝美妆和个人护理等热门品类，生鲜、母婴服饰、家居用品等也占据了很大比例。其中，由于时间充裕，经济压力相对较小，线下购物需求未得到满足，低线城市用户不断从“高增长”故事中脱颖而出。
网红直播模式的演进不断逼近货源。流量、供应链、合同履约能力是电商绕不过去的大山。五年后，直播间或将“人-货-场”做到极致。
内容方面，主播体系完备，既有广告公司+MCN+明星经纪人；货运方面，自主供应链、自主工厂、自主品牌、自主生产补货、仓储配送能力；在现场方面，丰富的电商和线下经验。未来可能还会有更多“直播机构+MCN+商家+供应链”四合一的超级直播机构。
关于网红直播，我们的投资建议是，网红直播将为传统电商平台注入内容活力是不争的事实。我们相信中心化电商平台阿里巴巴将继续受益于淘宝直播的快速发展，而涉足去中心化电商板块的快手和中国有赞可能会迎来更大的发展机遇。
风险提示：宏观经济持续下行风险；技术变革、互联网流量衰退风险；政策监管风险
问题一：为什么不是电视购物的升级？ (1）购物行为是购物与娱乐相结合，回归场景消费
网红直播不是电视购物的简单升级版。两者解决的问题不同，电视购物不太可能积累私人流量。
在传统网络购物的成熟模式下，已经有图文导购平台“种草”，但网红直播解决了直观体验信息不畅、购物娱乐属性在线化的问题实现交互的问题是从搜索到体验，从买东西到有人陪买东西的转变。
最重要的是，用户的主动选择，不仅是主动选择产品，更是在购买过程中主动选择卖给谁、陪伴谁，已经提升到了前所未有的高度。有真人详细讲解，实时聊天。由于用户的主动选择，网红具有明显的流量聚合效应和互动的正反馈机制。用户可以真正感受到众多买家的购买欲望和集体消费的狂欢。在联动产品的“第二空气”中，一次次攀登情绪的高点。
而电视购物解决了购物的不便。人们在家就可以打开电视了解商品信息，不用去商场，降低了高昂的信息获取成本，刺激了当下的消费冲动。再加上略显夸张的表达技巧，再加上10、15年前吸引人的产品价格和赠品数量，电视购物已经进入了人们的视野。
感谢电视台的功劳背书，导购所面对的受众可能范围很广，但广大的受众基本不会因为缺乏互动性而成为导购粉丝(忠诚度买家），而网红直播或多或少可以做到这一点。
线下购物变成网购又回到“线下购物”，问题是“衔尾蛇”。
传统的网购是超市模式。用户浏览自己的选择，加入购物车结账，交易完成。于是，直播带货从“人-货”的状态变成了“人-货-场”的模式。
根据尼尔森在线购物报告，47% 的消费者在网上购物前会先到实体店检查商品。仍然需要直观的“查看产品”。 70% 的消费者将受到社交媒体的影响，从而改变他们的在线购物决定。
结合“看货”需求和网红影响力，网红直播从2016年开始，2018年的高速发展不无踪影。无论是商人、网红还是名人，他们都负责直观、动态地展示产品，讲述用户体验。用户真的有逛街的感觉，长时间呆在同一个直播间。店里坐下来开始聊天。
人流量少的主机是街边小店，人流量大的主机是批发市场。网购使渠道互联网化，商品直播的形式满足了人们的交易需求和陪伴需求，这一点没有改变。网上购物的趋势越来越明显。消磨时间、加强互动、发现乐趣，不断创造新产品、新消费对象、新消费内容，实现了质的飞跃。
网红直播和线下导购最大的区别在于谁拥有主动权。
网红主播的态度其实比较友好，连顶级网红主播的态度都很好。用户基本感受不到购物的压力，通过视频面对面，消除了线下面对面的尴尬和人情味。用户主动选择离开或留在直播间。通过点对点回到个人本身，更容易建立信任。
淘宝直播发展迅速，快手、快手直播带来的带货量不容小觑。说起网红直播，就不得不提淘宝直播。依托淘宝强大的电商流量基础，2017年在内容、流量、玩法等方面发生了重大升级。
相比于早年在微博上发图文的网红，2017年，在短视频的强势扩张下，不少网红涌现更快，传播范围更广。它还具有很强的流量反馈作用。淘宝直播还打算培养或扶持一批网红，李佳琦就是受益者之一。 2018年淘宝直播带货规模突破1000亿，同比增长350%。
快手和快手不仅拥有孵化网红的流量优势，在自有商品的规模上也有不错的成绩。 2018年4月，快手对“我的商店”进行了小范围内测。 6月，与有赞合作推出“短视频电商导购”，新增“快手店”。同时，推出“魔筷电视”小程序。 ，引导用户一键跳转完成购买。 2018年5月，快手上线门店入口。 2019年可以说是直播爆发的一年。
2019年淘宝直播“618”截至15:30的交易额为130亿元。
根据QuestMobile《2019双11洞察报告》，手机淘宝APP观看直播的用户数为4133万，同比增长130.5%。双11淘宝直播交易规模为200亿元，其中10亿元以上的直播间，千万级的直播间超过100间。
(2）直播充分发挥网红的可视化能力，正是用户购物决策所需要的
影响者因其有趣的个性或专业性或两者兼而有之而脱颖而出，并且用户的信任和喜欢难以分开。
人脑没有准确的独立记忆功能，不像快门和镜头可以记录一切，并将它们存储为独立的印象。每个人的大脑其实都有不同的想象机制和空间。在接收外部信息的过程中，各种信息会被合并、交织或稀释。每一条信息都不像条目那样独立记录，而是通过因人而异的想象转化为独特的印象。
在这个过程中，我们倾向于将事物拟人化。用户决策中的人性部分隐藏在想象加工的拟人化印象中。
在沃尔特·李普曼的《舆论》中提到：
“要想引起人们的兴趣，就必须先把原图抽象出来，再把抽象的东西具体表现出来”。
由于我们在做出购买决定时并非无所不知，因此我们倾向于求助于擅长提炼和可视化事物的有才华的人。正是因为每个人的可视化能力不同，才诞生了KOL。他们要么有漂亮的脸蛋和身材，擅长展示产品的好看和合适的程度，要么在某些领域具有很强的专业性，例如对于各种美容产品，他选择的产品特别好-看着。 ，因此很受欢迎。
那么，如今已经是非常火的头部网红的李佳琦，可能正是以上两点。通过快手，一段言简意赅、言简意赅、感染力极强的短视频发布，并以超越图文草稿的方式迅速传播，增强了想象力。人们闻讯而来，被现场直播中个性化的促销活动所打动。
在各个细分领域，最具个人特征（真实人性）和可视化能力的网红不断积累用户，打通从认知到种植再到购买的交易闭环。网红直播市场的滚雪球式增长，也是由内生的传播和发生机制决定的。
网红带货的本质是“种草”，为什么视频或直播的“种草”更具感染力？
看到这个问题，首先想到的就是视频或者直播比文字和图片更直观，而且直播有实时反馈。种草的过程其实是一个问答的过程，直截了当的解决问题效率最高。
这是正确的。但如果我们进一步思考，我们会发现，购买行为更多的是一个说服的过程，一个分享直觉的过程。尤其是美妆、服装等品牌溢价不完全依赖产品使用价值定价的品类，直觉分享的触感更为重要。
用户很容易被生动表达的直觉所打动，这种直觉高度私密，几乎难以理解。所以，在有空间和触觉障碍的情况下，如果很多人需要统一思想去行动，只有变得生动有趣，达到共鸣，触动用户的内心需求，才容易实现。
视频有助于尽可能多地表达直觉。所以短视频的方式比图文更容易传播（冲动转发），这就是口碑营销的线上化，而直播的方式可以更快的完成交易的闭环，营造精彩的氛围集体消费。
问题2：商家既然也可以直播带货，那为什么还需要网红？ （1）条件是逆境，粘性增加的背后，意味着注意力难以吸引
鱼缸为鱼儿提供了生存条件，也为鱼儿划定了生存边界。如果只是为了打折，那么直接图文展示效率更高，即使考虑到网红的流量聚合效应，也可以作为“经销商”为品牌“补价”，品牌本身很难做到。到了这个地步，不知名的品牌就更难做了。
这不是网红直播无法替代的核心原因。直播可以更直观地展示商品，但我们不能忘记，直播不仅仅是为了商品，直播的形式本质上会为用户消耗大量的时间。网速再快，也改变不了每个人只有24小时。
用户观看直播的首要需求是消磨时间，所以它必须足够有趣。有趣的人和有趣的内容是网红直播可持续商业模式的基础。这也说明，在流量平台这么多的情况下，商家可以直接把最优惠的折扣放在他们身上来吸引买家，但他们仍然选择与网红合作。
微博、小红书等传统图文、种草平台也具有强大的网红流量聚合效应，但短视频加直播或短视频+直播大大提升了网红的趣味性和影响力。个性部分的展示降低了商家抓住用户注意力的难度，用户信任和喜欢的情绪更容易产生，购物行为也更容易出现，留存率也会提高。
根据淘宝与淘宝直播联合发布的《2019淘宝直播生态发展趋势报告》，2018年淘宝直播入店转化率超过65%，核心用户（访问淘宝直播3次以上）每周的天数）平均每天逗留。接近1小时。从非核心用户转变为核心用户的过程，正是网红的价值所在。网红元素本身并不容易被淘汰。可能是某个特定的网红会过时，但也有长江后浪推前，新人很快上来。
那为什么淘宝直播90%是商家自播，网红主播不到10%呢？
电商直播行业其实处于发展初期，还在快速增长中。 2018年，淘宝用户观看直播内容超过15万小时，购买商品超过60万件。不仅是淘宝直播，快手、快手、微信直播也很火爆。
从直播间数来看，淘宝上商家自播的比例确实很大，但如果看GMV，可能是网红的贡献主播还是比较大的。商家自播是单品牌直播，分为两种——即品牌主或自有员工，或者是网红自己的品牌，网红就是商家.
网红主播一般做多品牌、多品类的直播，从中抽取一定的提成分成。因为需要有自己的流量基础，所以网红主播总数比较少，但是头部网红主播带货销售的爆发力很强。
对于网红来说，通常收取单链手续费和佣金，收入可观，自有品牌趋势也很明显。李佳琦9月直播产品单场成本按品类从1.5万到9万不等，双十一期间单环节甚至超过21万，将采取产品原价对于快手和快手平台的直播，内容平台也将分一杯羹。
在快手和快手的直播中，也可以分为自有品牌商品和第三方品牌商品两种。快手和快手的个性属性更强，自有品牌和白标产品的发展空间很大。
根据2019年尼尔森社交电商深度研究消费者调查数据，82%的网购用户有无计划的消费行为，其中61%的用户无计划购物来自身边朋友的推荐。二是朋友圈的产品链接，通过社交裂变产生计划外购买。
“身边朋友推荐”的信任背书类似于自下而上的快手等短视频平台上的网红（或“老铁”）。其中，直播机构也应运而生，类似于MCN或公会的角色，聚集网红主播，负责主播投资、运营粉丝、售后及对外宣传。
如今，很多直播机构也开始接触供应链，积极为主播寻找或创造适销对路的产品，也有个人品牌孵化网红主播。而且大部分商家都有完整的微信-微博-小红书-快手/快手-直播的营销链接。毫无疑问，商家正在加大对直播的投入。无论是自己做的，还是网红做的，整体规模都在增加。
(2）产品本身的差异越小，越需要重新定义
网红直播容易爆的品类往往单价低、复购率高，背后是用户偏爱小消费、囤积消费。除了快速消费品、洗护用品、卫生纸、家居用品和零食外，随着近年来国内美妆产品的兴起，美容产品中的消耗性护肤品单价相对较低，比如面膜和化妆产品。借助网红直播的潮流，口红取得了显著成效。但实际上，这些单价低、复购率高的产品，在使用价值上差别不大。
那么除了价格（通常品牌之间的价格差异不是特别大）之外，品牌或消费者意识占据了购买决定的很大一部分。网红，无论是淘宝模特、专柜BA还是时尚博主，通常都深谙消费心理。他们利用自己出色的可视化技巧，为具有自己个性特征的产品或品牌赋予新的定义，从而引起用户的共鸣。或同理心。
品类和渠道的快速增长在低线城市统一，强调性价比、强调熟人的口碑效应、网红直播也是统一的。在消费升级与消费降级并存的今天，当“下沉”二字反复出现在人们的视野中时，我们正在谈论的是网红直播火爆时低线城市的贡献。我们在说什么？
根据尼尔森研究统计，自 2015 年以来，快消品市场约 60% 的增长来自于低线城市。与其他城市相比，低线城市的增长速度也是最快的。低线城市复合年增长率7.9%，一线城市2.6%。
以个护产品为例，截至2019年6月，其在一、二线城市销量下降2.9%，而在二线城市则上升1.@ > 7. 饮料产品在低线城市也呈现出较高的增速。淘宝直播、快手快手直播也在低线城市实现了快速发展，吸收了线下向线上迁移的红利。
单价高、复购率低的品牌也受益于网红直播，品类还在不断扩大。分期消费的渗透速度加快，尤其是在年轻人中，直播在扩大品类的同时进一步发展。分期付款的普及促成了交易行为的发生，而蚂蚁花北、京东白条、苏宁任性支付等电商平台的消费分期支付方式也对网购起到了很大的帮助。
一方面降低了消费门槛，另一方面也降低了用户消费冲动的心理阻力。尤其对于单价较高（1000元以上）的品类，如电子产品（手机电脑等）、大牌美妆护肤品、家电等电商分期付款极具吸引力。
此外，还有汽车的成功案例。 2019年10月16日，宝沃汽车邀请代言人雷佳音、主播陈洁琪琪和网红“手工耿”进厂，同时开启现场直播售车。直播期间，累计观看人数超过459万，共预订宝沃汽车1623辆。 ，交易金额达到2.2亿元，创2019年主机厂直播预订量新纪录。
根据南都大数据研究院2019年4月18日发布的《新青年·新消费：95后消费增长报告》，所有年龄段中，22-25岁（95后）是受影响的受访者中，55.9%的人使用分期消费，居各年龄段首位，其次是26-29岁（90后），47.1%。
苏宁金融在2019年11月12日发布的双11战报中显示，24期任性支付同比增长498%。双11期间，95后申请任性支付的人数同比增长70%，成为分期消费的新主力。 1995年出生的人经常使用网上购物，对娱乐和陪伴有强烈的需求，而电子商务分期付款的方式也为他们提供了灵活的资金选择。
从城市层面来看，其实三四线城市使用分期消费的比例其实更高。三线城市渗透率为67.3%，四线城市为75.9%。年轻人，尤其是三四线城市的年轻人，通过各电商分期付款，进一步释放消费能力，省去了申请信用卡的繁琐过程，满足了早期消费的巨大需求。
问题3：网红带货直播是不是既经济又长远？ （1）效率是网红直播的基础，低成本爆款打造各方共赢模式
效率是所有电商模式的基础，性价比是重中之重。网红直播模式是昙花一现（如电视购物）还是新趋势，其经济性至关重要。
我们认为，网红直播是一种各方共赢的模式，高效、长久，具有高性价比和“爆量”的特点。与流行的看法相反，直播电商是比纯流量业务更复杂的业务，产品组合是主播的核心竞争力。哪怕是一个几十万的小主播，每天都要花费大量的精力在产品组合上，谁能提供更全面的产品，更能满足粉丝的需求，谁就能留住粉丝 .
这也是电商主播和节目主播最大的区别。 MCN机构要想谋求电商变现，最终还是要去杭州。薇娅的千寻和快手辛巴也搬到了杭州，主要是因为杭州的供应链比想象的要发达。
对于粉丝来说，“萌妹子和OMG”很重要，但“选品能力”和“折扣”更关键。回到“网红带货是比纯流量业务更复杂的业务”这句话，那我们先来看看什么是纯流量业务，比如明星代言。
在10月21日开启的天猫双11预售中，肖战的雅诗兰黛礼盒几小时内售罄，张艺兴的MAC口红预售22万支。
明星代言/指定产品有什么特点？
高销量（当然也有一些滑铁卢的产品），适当的溢价（证明明星的影响力），还有赠品（刺激粉丝的购买欲望），而这些产品基本上是从不明星使用，粉丝购买是纯流量效应。当然，网红也有纯流量效应，但和明星的流量效应不同。他们选择产品和折扣的能力是核心。
第一点是选择产品的能力。带货的顶级网红很专业。众所周知，李佳琦成名前是南昌一名普通的欧莱雅BA（化妆品专柜美容顾问）。薇娅第一次淘宝直播主要讲了一些护肤心得和穿衣技巧。她在各自的领域都拥有无与伦比的专业精神。而品味，“什么样的口红适合什么样的人，有什么样的感觉”。
For Wei Ya and Li Jiaqi, screening products is an important daily work. After the live broadcast at 12 o'clock at night, they kept trying, trying, and trying on. The selection process is also very strict. It has to go through the primary selection of the selection team, the experience trial of the core team, and the re-trial of the anchor. The final pass rate is less than 5%; and Qianxun's investment selection team has more than 80 people, and has developed Link's mid-stage system. Li Jiaqi, who "overturned" on the non-stick pan and the top crab in Yangcheng Lake, will also be criticized by 粉丝s.
The second point is the discount, the lowest price on the whole network or a gift. "The lowest price on the entire network" is a symbol of status, which means that 粉丝 will follow them more zealously. With the trust of 粉丝, sales will increase, and merchants will flock to them, and the anchor will be able to get through this. Governor two veins.
Li Jiaqi once asked 粉丝 to return all the products and "ban Lancome forever" in the live broadcast room because Lancome did not give him the lowest price on the entire network. When Wei Ya first started live broadcasting, she lost 500,000 yuan per month. In order to build brand appeal, no link fee, no gold or minimum commission. Is it very similar to Pinduoduo's "tens of billions of subsidies" this year?
Of course, the low-price model of live broadcast is not suitable for all brands. The core competence of a brand is a premium price. Low prices in live broadcast rooms will damage the value of the brand. Therefore, many brands would rather give more gifts than lower prices. But the actual conversion, 粉丝 still got the discount.
For merchants, the role of online celebrity live streaming is more complicated, including explosive volume, destocking, and Ali-based traffic ratio. The first two are relatively simple. If the brand wants to achieve a level of GMV on the brand day, it is the only choice to be a celebrity, and it is also necessary to make profits (new products can gain a lot of sales weight through live broadcast); Inventory, influencer live broadcast is also very effective.
Then why do brands like Douyin / Kuaishou live streaming marketing model? (Instead of Taobao Live, Tmall Express, etc.)
This involves a rule of the Ali system - preferential treatment is given to the traffic imported by merchants from outside the body, and in principle, a 1:1 traffic ratio is carried out internally. In short: if the Estee Lauder flagship store imports 500,000 real buyers from Douyin live broadcast and completes transactions on Tmall, then Tmall/Taobao will in principle provide about 500,000 internal real traffic through various traffic portals The interface is complete.
The above is only an approximate ratio, and the actual implementation is very complicated. This is the "traffic grassland" strategy of Tao-based e-commerce, which encourages traffic from various external channels, but does not allow any channel to occupy a too important position. Also known as "only the capillaries, not the aorta".
For Taobao, online celebrity live streaming means off-site traffic. Taobao Live very welcomes anchors who bring their own traffic, such as Kuaishou or Douyin celebrities, and entering Taobao Live can theoretically bring some off-site traffic. At the same time, these anchors are more likely to gain followers than amateur anchors.
But diverting traffic outside the station is also a taboo between platforms. Taobao Live lacks traffic sources, especially compared to short video content platforms such as Douyin and Kuaishou. At present, Taobao Live's daily activities do not exceed 20 million (not more than 10 million in 2018), which limits its commercialization and guidance. Ability to trade. Traffic can be said to be the foundation of live e-commerce, and off-site internet celebrities mean new traffic.
Actually, online celebrity live streaming is a very effective and successful e-commerce model, achieving a win-win situation for all parties. The efficiency and effect are even higher than the evaluation community (worth buying, etc.), Pinduoduo and other models. The benefits of the Quartet have also been described comprehensively above, without further elaboration. The more interesting points that stand out are:
Influencer live streaming does not consume 粉丝, but instead enhances its traffic capacity through low prices and discounts, which further determines the ecological structure of the strong and ever-strong. Compared with evaluation websites, online celebrity live streaming is more interactive and visual (but for categories with high standardization and low commission rate, such as electronics, online celebrity delivery is not worth buying and other evaluation communities are efficient and low-cost) ); compared with Pinduoduo, its content is richer and will become an important component of e-commerce models in the future. For merchants, low prices not only exchanged sales, but also exchanged the search weight of new products, saving a considerable amount of marketing expenses.
Question 4: Why has the "Internet celebrity + star" live streaming model also emerged? (1）To tell the story of the unity of quality and effect, we must first clarify the relationship between brand premium and promotion
Celebrities are spokespersons and internet celebrities are shopping guides, just as advertising is divided into two orientations: building brand awareness and promoting. The spokesperson evokes emotional resonance, and the shopping guide helps consumers to deepen the understanding and comparison of products. The former favors sensibility and memory, the latter favors rationality and calculation, and the two actually act on the “price” and “quantity” of commodities respectively.
The essence of building brand value is to let users know and create a brand premium, so the natural price increase of the product will not easily damage sales. There are four main stages of brand building: brand awareness, brand recognition, brand association and brand loyalty.
A successful brand first has a relatively high reputation, and then the audience has a full understanding of the brand's connotation, personality, etc., and the emotional resonance brought by this understanding is positive and positive, and finally uses the product. , After recognizing the value of the product, it will repeat the purchase again and become a loyal consumer.
There is a "Drake Channel" across the leap from brand awareness and recognition to Lenovo, and celebrity and supermodel endorsements often contribute to this link. The day before the 2019 Double 11 pre-sale opened, Estee Lauder announced Xiao Zhan as the brand's spokesperson for makeup and fragrance in the Asia-Pacific region. In September 2019, Estee Lauder signed Li Xian as the brand's spokesperson for skin care and makeup in the Asia-Pacific region, while Yang Mi is the global spokesperson for Estee Lauder. Estee Lauder's newly launched Xiao Zhan limited gift box sold 8.52 million yuan in sales within 1 hour.
The use of celebrity spokespersons is not only to achieve the effect of 粉丝, but also to maintain the brand value in the long run. The keywords of "young", "exquisite" and "elegant" will be imprinted on the audience's attention.心里。 And this kind of "long distance" cannot be brought by the live broadcast of Internet celebrities.
Estee Lauder's 2019 Double 11 also opened links for Wei Ya and Li Jiaqi respectively, which basically opened the biggest discount in Estee Lauder's history, and star products are basically buy one get one free (gifts are superimposed by small samples). Strong promotional activities have led to the repurchase of old customers in a short period of time, and also led to the participation of some new customers, but in the long run, the value of celebrity spokespersons is also indispensable.
This is also the reason why Estee Lauder is willing to send a lot of samples and gifts and is not willing to directly reduce the price. The direct price reduction will affect the brand to a certain extent. Influencer live streaming is an online promotion platform, not the best scenario for building brand associations, especially for high-end brands.
Once a star "goes down to the world" as an anchor, it will seriously damage their own tonality. The Internet celebrity + star model may achieve "have both."职业没有高低之分。 It is not that Internet celebrities are "low", but that the audience is in different scenes, and they will have different impressions and feelings of Internet celebrities or stars. If a star directly broadcasts goods alone, he has already joined the team of Internet celebrities at that moment, and he will leave his original identity as an actor, singer or host.
People's memory and cognition of a person is contextualized. If the star himself does not have outstanding expressive ability, the transaction results may not be as good as the net red. Relatively speaking, the "Internet celebrity + star" model may be better, the role positioning has been determined, and the maintenance of Lenovo is still there.
Successful cases, such as Zhu Yilong, R1SE Zhou Zhennan, Lai Guanlin and other stars cooperate with Li Jiaqi to bring goods in live broadcasts, all of which have achieved good results, and they will continue to detonate topic heat (frequently on Weibo hot search), usually also Relatively positive audience feedback.
(2）粉丝Behavior is economic behavior, and its essence is rational behavior
If entertainment in live broadcasts is necessary, it will basically lead to the differentiation of people based on needs and preferences, forming a 粉丝group of Internet celebrities (loyal buyers). In fact, the live broadcast of Internet celebrities can also be regarded as a type of effective advertising. What Internet celebrities drive is to refine the audience’s focused communication.
Let's imagine a scenario where consumers tend to choose a store that is physically closer to them when shopping offline, because it takes the least amount of time and transportation costs. Then, when physical distance is converted into psychological distance, it is the community that accurately locates needs and preferences, which spends the least time to find and communicate.
Words such as "I am Wei Ya's woman" and "I am Li Jiaqi's woman" emerge in an endless stream. In addition to considering the effect of 粉丝, from a rational point of view, categories and brands centered on Internet celebrities will Radiation is also the approximate scope of their loyal consumers' circle of needs and interests.
Li Jiaqi became popular on Douyin with the name "Lipstick Brother". He is very familiar and professional with lipsticks or makeup products. A large part of his live broadcast room 粉丝 It is also the people who love lipstick and beauty, and these people are most likely young women, so they also have needs for skin care products and snacks.
Weiya, who was born in "Tao girl", has a relatively high degree of professionalism in clothing, and will gather a group of 粉丝 who have the same preferences and needs. The premise of going out of the circle is often the extension of users’ own preferences and needs. The common extension of many users has achieved the growth of Internet celebrities across brands and categories.
The essence of shopping behavior is rational behavior. Never underestimate the smartness of consumers. Consumers are getting smarter, especially young consumers. It is very obvious that they have enough discernment to identify the sincerity of selling products.
First, an example: it's also a very misunderstood point. Is it irrational to pay for a celebrity endorsement product?
No, at least not entirely. "Fanquan" 粉丝 pays for products endorsed by celebrities, and "paying for love" is an external manifestation. We must understand what this "love" actually means. In fact, it is to help their favorite stars achieve better endorsement data results, so that the stars have enough pay to continue to be active in the public eye.
Essentially, 粉丝 is to pay for the opportunity of future stars to release songs, hold concerts, and participate in film and television dramas. The star's 作品 or professional performance is in the front, the love is in the back, and then the formation of Forward cycle.
If celebrities no longer continue to be active in the public eye, no longer produce 作品, but instead become full-time Internet celebrities for shopping guides, this positive cycle will be difficult to maintain. Because it is very likely that once the amount and certainty of the income of the star bringing goods is higher than that of the acting career, he will quit the circle forever. Unless the star becomes a member of the Internet celebrity anchor, then the logic of bringing goods is still the logic of Internet celebrities bringing goods.
The strengthening of the influencer's ability to bring goods through live broadcasts will improve his bargaining power with brand owners. The actual benefits of this discount will eventually be transferred to consumers. Consumers are fully motivated to support their frequent purchases. The live broadcast room continuously deepens loyalty.
Question 5: Is there a Matthew effect in the live streaming of online celebrities? Are the effects long-term? (1）Taobao Live Pursues Efficiency, Wei Ya Li Jiaqi Double Giants Mode Exists for a Long Time
In Taobao live broadcast, especially Double 11, "only the top anchors have traffic, and the traffic of small and medium anchors is almost cut in half".
There is a judgment in the industry that Wei Ya accounts for 30% of the GMV of Taobao live broadcast every night, Li Jiaqi accounts for 20%, and the remaining 50% is the market for various anchors to grab the beach. In 2019, the double 11 Taobao live broadcast led to a transaction of nearly 20 billion yuan, and 17 live broadcast rooms led to a transaction of more than 100 million yuan, including 4 online celebrity live broadcast rooms (Weiya, Li Jiaqi, etc.), 3 Tao brand live broadcast rooms (Sydney, Zhang Dayi, etc.) ), and the rest are dominated by traditional big brands (Xiaomi, Haier, etc.).
From the Taobao live double 11 peak live broadcast popularity rankings, we can also see that the anchors bring the goods to the head. The popularity of Wei Ya and Li Jiaqi (the comprehensive consideration of indicators such as 粉丝 attention, shopping guide transactions, etc.) is It is more than 10 times that of the second echelon. Considering that the turnover is also several times more, it is conservatively estimated that the double 11 sales of Wei Ya and Li Jiaqi will be at least 500 million and 300 million. (Weiya's 2018 Double 11 guided transaction 3.300 million, the annual guided transaction was 2.7 billion, and the 618 guided transaction in 2019 exceeded 500 million) Compared with the pattern of live broadcasts by merchants, Matthew, who is a live broadcaster with goods The effect is undoubtedly huge.
In Taobao live broadcast, on the one hand, the volume of transactions led by the anchor, the record of continuous live broadcast, etc., will affect the recommendation weight of the next day. This has a very high threshold for the anchor and the team. Even for Wei Ya, the number of broadcasts in a month should be more than 20 or even 25.
On the other hand, for Taobao, efficiency is more critical. The purpose of allocating traffic to anchors is to promote transactions, but it is not cost-effective for Taobao to allocate traffic to too many small anchors but fail to sell. . Different from other content platforms, the daily active users of Taobao Live currently do not exceed 20 million. The lack of traffic sources, the pursuit of efficiency and the excessive head effect further squeeze the living space of small anchors.
(2）The centralization of the content platform determines the Matthew effect of Internet celebrities bringing goods
For content platforms, the degree of centralization of traffic determines the degree of centralization of online celebrity live streaming. We have discussed in detail in the previous report "The Character of Kuaishou: Fast is Slow, Slow is Fast", Douyin is oriented by "high-quality content" and has a high degree of centralization (3% of the videos occupy the 80% of users’ playback volume); Kuaishou is “creator”-oriented, with a high degree of decentralization (the current limit of head content is about 30%), traffic is the basis for online celebrities to bring goods through live broadcasts, and the traffic structure is also correct. The Matthew effect of bringing goods has a decisive role.
According to the 2019 2019 Double 11 Off-site Talent TOP list released by Taobao Alliance, we found that Kuaishou anchors account for more than 30%, and the distribution is relatively even (from Simba, who is the No. 1 in Taobao Station, to the thirty-ninth Brother Beiyuan); about 16% of Douyin anchors (mainly due to the more supply and audience of Kuaishou live broadcast), among which Li Jiaqi Austin leads the way, and other anchors have relatively scattered ability to bring goods.
Li Jiaqi's ability to carry goods is excellent, but he also benefits from Douyin's traffic recommendation and centralized mechanism, which does not depend on individuals, and is also a dialectical relationship between contingency and inevitability.
In terms of algorithms, the core is "matching user tags and content tags, and layer-by-layer user pool feedback mechanisms". The algorithms of Douyin and Kuaishou are different, mainly in two aspects:
Dealing with duplicate content, in Douyin's algorithm system, suspected duplicate content will be recommended by low traffic; Kuaishou, in order to ensure the right of each creator to be seen, even similar content will be recommended Chance. The processing of traffic peaking, there may be content that hundreds of millions of users have watched on Douyin, but it is unique on Kuaishou. When the video popularity reaches a certain threshold, the exposure opportunities will continue to decrease. This also determines the centralization of Douyin on the traffic side and the relative decentralization of Kuaishou.
Combined, Taobao and Douyin's Matthew effect will exist for a long time, while Kuaishou is relatively average. This is mainly due to the joint decision of the recommendation mechanism of traffic and efficiency. In fact, Kuaishou is a traffic mechanism of manual intervention, and there is still a certain centralization trend in essence.
In addition, the Matthew effect of Internet celebrities bringing goods does not matter whether it is good or bad, it is just a trade-off between traffic and efficiency. It is unlikely that the next Li Jiaqi or Wei Ya will appear on Taobao. The competition has become fierce. Taobao's traffic is very expensive and has an obvious official orientation. The challenge of growing into the next giant is too great, but Douyin and Kuaishou may There is still hope.
Question 6: What kind of anchor is more capable of bringing goods? Traffic is the basis for top anchors to bring goods, and low 粉丝 anchors also have "spring"
Traffic is the foundation, but 粉丝number does not equal sales. According to the annual sales list of e-commerce experts disclosed by Taobao, the top-ranked Simba and Sanda brothers are the head anchors of platforms such as Kuaishou/Douyin, and the traffic is the basic disk of these anchors.
40% of Douyin's TOP 20 top sellers have 粉丝 volume less than one million, and 粉丝 volume does not determine sales volume. Among the accounts on the Douyin Best-Selling List on the 30th, we found that content-based accounts such as Li Jiaqi Austin and Bankrupt Sisters and Brothers are the leaders of the goods industry. 粉丝Volume does not determine sales, good content + live broadcast, and the quality of products that pass the test are the keys to establishing a "strong trust" bond between KOLs and 粉丝.
8 of the TOP 20 sales adults粉丝 are less than one million, but their ability to carry goods is still very outstanding. Continue to release videos of planting grass and unpacking, and provide good things to users in need, improve the conversion rate and become the first choice for mid-waist anchors to become experts.
Low粉丝How can a host maintain a high conversion rate?
First, in terms of positioning, cut into vertical categories and shorten the realization path. Li Jiaqi is good at beauty makeup, Wei Ya starts from clothing, and big anchors also start from head categories; vertical categories are easier to reflect professionalism and enhance trust. Second, in terms of personality, build a high degree of recognition of your own. The positioning of Li Jiaqi's "Lipstick Brother", Uncle Mana's father and son file combination provides "contrasting cuteness", which makes it easier to stand out. Third, in terms of methods, live broadcasts are retained 粉丝, especially Kuaishou, and daily live broadcasts are an important way to maintain relationships with users.
Question 7: Who are the users who watch the live broadcasts of Internet celebrities and bring goods? (1）She has a strong economy in her field of vision, and the cultivated young group takes over the main force of consumption
Taobao live broadcast is dominated by women between the ages of 25 and 35, and the purchasing power of men in Kuaishou live broadcast should not be underestimated. There is no obvious gender structural difference in shopping behavior itself, and the difference in consumption preferences between men and women is reflected in the category difference.
Comparing Douyin live broadcast and Kuaishou, according to Questmobile user profile data, it can be seen that the proportion of male and female users of Douyin live broadcast is almost equal, and because the proportion of female users in the basic users of Douyin App is slightly higher, it shows that Female users on Douyin prefer the embedded live broadcasts. However, Kuaishou is different. Male users of Kuaishou live broadcast account for 53.3%, and they prefer live broadcasts more than the proportion of basic users.
However, in addition to personal consumption, women often assume the role of household consumption decision-makers, so the consumption potential seems to be stronger. The main consumer goods categories in Taobao Live are clothing, jewelry, beauty and personal care, fresh food, maternal and child clothing and household goods. Compared with Douyin and Kuaishou, Taobao and Tmall have the advantage of naturally attracting female consumers for category consumption that prefers brands (beauty, personal care, and maternal and child products).
From the perspective of age structure, Douyin and Kuaishou account for 47.7% and 48.1% of people aged 25 to 35, respectively. We speculate that people who watch Douyin live and Kuaishou live Compared with the user age structure of the app, the proportion of people aged 25 to 35 may be slightly higher. This group of people has sufficient purchasing intention and high purchasing power, and makes a relatively large contribution to live broadcast delivery.
According to the "Tmall 618 Taobao Live Consumer Portraits" released by Taobao Ranking and Taobao Live in 2019, the post-90s generation has become the main consumer in the live broadcast room, and the post-00s generation has suddenly emerged, and it also has strong purchasing power. Online celebrity live streaming is an emerging shopping model, so the post-95s and post-00s are growing up in the rapid development period of online celebrity live streaming. They are a generation that is being nurtured and have initially shown a certain consumption potential and future shopping channels. migration preference.
(2）Having money and leisure, the state of life determines the state of mind
It is not accurate to use "sinking" to describe the live broadcast of Internet celebrities, but they are the first to run out of low-tier cities. The highest user penetration rate in Taobao Live is in second-tier cities, followed by sixth-tier cities, while first-tier cities have the lowest penetration rate. In Douyin Live and Kuaishou Live, users from third-tier cities and below also account for the majority, of which Kuaishou Live accounts for 60.4%, which is 4.5pct higher than Douyin Live . Compared with the basic user attributes of Douyin and Kuaishou App, the relative positive deviation of the third-tier and below Kuaishou live broadcast is larger, which also shows that Kuaishou users in low-tier cities are more accepting and prefer the form of live broadcasting.
The urban structure distribution of Internet celebrities 粉丝 also has a unified relationship of linkage. The proportion of people in third-tier and below cities is higher than that in first- and second-tier cities, which is 15.6pct higher.
It can be said that the base camp of online celebrity live streaming is in low-tier cities, and now there are signs of "attacking" high-tier cities, no longer sinking from top to bottom like traditional shopping channels. The live broadcast of Internet celebrities followed the spread of social media, and the popularity of top Internet celebrities continued to rise, and it also showed a slight trend of "rural encirclement of cities".
Understand first and then define. The psychological state of users is often described by external living conditions. It is precisely because of sufficient time, relatively little economic pressure and unmet needs for offline shopping that users in low-tier cities can continue to Stand out from the "high growth" story. In an environment of economic downturn, new growth points often occur in the gaps of major supply and demand mismatches that have not been noticed. Users in low-tier cities have relatively abundant time, and many emerging brands (especially international brands) are no longer active in offline channels, so the online celebrity live broadcast will take the lead in running out at this level.
According to the "2019 "6.18" E-commerce Report" released by QuestMobile, the per capita usage time and frequency of live online shopping users are higher than the data of the entire network of mobile e-commerce, nearly 80% The consumption power of live online shopping users is at a medium and high level. Compared with 一、second-tier city users’ high housing cost (rent or mortgage pressure), high work pressure (less leisure and entertainment time), and high childcare pressure (education cost), the spending power of users in low-tier cities is limited. Inspiration is a matter of time.
Question 8: What causes the difference in brand, category and price of online celebrity live streaming? (1）Expanding categories and own brands are inevitable choices for TOP Internet celebrities
When it comes to live streaming, the insurmountable are the three giants: Wei Ya, Li Jiaqi, and Simba. Behind Wei Ya is Taobao Live, Li Jiaqi is a combination of Taobao Live and Douyin traffic, Simba belongs to Kuaishou, and the three people's annual guided transaction amount is about 3 billion.
But in terms of category, brand and price, the three top traffic giants are different:
In terms of categories, Li Jiaqi specializes in cosmetics; Wei Ya starts from clothing and gradually covers various categories; Simba also covers all categories, but there is no doubt that cosmetics occupy the largest share. In terms of brands, Li Jiaqi are all third-party products, both domestic and international brands; more than 30% of Wei Ya are customized products; Simba’s custom proportion is significantly higher than that of Wei Ya, and Xin Youzhiyan is the best seller on Kuaishou. A selection of freeze-dried powders and masks. In terms of price, the three are basically the lowest price on the entire network. However, due to the different categories and brands, the prices of Li Jiaqi and Wei Ya's goods are both a few hundred yuan, while Simba's single products are basically the same. dozens. Two questions arise from this:
First, is category expansion an inevitable choice for all top streamers? Second, is the private brand the final choice for the top Internet celebrities?
The answer to the first question is yes. Expanding categories is an inevitable choice for all top streamers, but the effect has a certain relationship with the platform, 粉丝portrait, etc. From the perspective of the supply side, cosmetics are the preferred category of top Internet celebrities, which have the advantages of high commission rate, impulsive consumption, flexible demand, etc., followed by women's clothing. However, the amount of guidance contributed by a single category is still limited, and expanding categories is also a proper choice for top Internet celebrities; but for Internet celebrities in the middle waist and below, "vertical traffic + vertical categories" is the way to win.
From the perspective of the demand side, it is mainly necessary to distinguish the relationship between the anchor and 粉丝 with goods, whether it belongs to the "pure traffic effect of 粉丝", "buyer's shopping guide relationship" or "old-fashioned" "Iron relationship", of course, the relationship between the head net red and 粉丝 is more complicated, and generally has multiple of them. Among them, "pure traffic effect" and "old iron relationship" have no requirements for categories; but "buyer's shopping guide relationship" requires the professionalism of the anchor in the relevant field, and the cross-category recognition is low.
Because the content platform determines to a certain extent粉丝the relationship with the host, it is easier for platforms like Kuaishou that focus more on community attributes to cross categories.
The answer to the second question is also yes, and private brands are also inevitable, but they have a certain relationship with platforms and categories. From the supply side, self-owned brands mean higher profits. In addition, there is more room for self-owned brands such as clothing and other non-standard products, and the extension of the industrial chain is also the only way for top Internet celebrities. In his recent speech, Li Jiaqi also indicated that he will set foot in his own brand in the future.
From the demand side, to obtain the recognition of 粉丝 requires breakthroughs in two aspects:
Categories, clothing and other non-standard products and standard products with low technical difficulty are more suitable for private brands; the relationship is similar to the category, the relationship between different anchors and 粉丝 depends on people or professional level , and also determines whether 粉丝 will pay for its own brand. In addition, we researched the top ten overseas beauty bloggers and found that:
80% of beauty bloggers have established their own brands, which is also related to the maturity of ODM in the overall beauty industry; Youtube overwhelms other social platforms, becoming the most active and 粉丝 of beauty bloggers place, with Instagram not far behind.
The relationship of 粉丝 is mentioned above. Let’s take an example: For example, when selling lipstick, Li Jiaqi must try the color, and the girls below are waiting. In the end how, how to use. But the same lipstick, if it is a Kuaishou anchor, generally say three words, old irons, there are 3000 pieces today, hurry up and buy it, if you don’t buy it, double-click a small red heart for me. In fact, it is still social behavior, not buying and selling.
(2）The platform creates "粉丝relationships", Kuaishou is more like Pinduoduo, and Douyin is more like Tmall
From the above, we can see the role of the platform in the relationship between "粉丝 and the anchor", so what is the difference between the two largest platforms in the short video field: Douyin and Kuaishou?
Kaishou delivery is more like Pinduoduo, and Douyin delivery is more like Tmall, mainly in terms of category, brand and price:
What kind of products sell best in Kuaishou?
Old Tie prefers to buy food and beverages (44%), facial care (25%), household daily necessities (10%), oral care (5%) and make-up (4%) in the live broadcast room. In contrast, Douyin has very obvious differences in women's clothing (18%) and 3C digital (10%), and it is also higher than Kuaishou for daily use at home (26%) and makeup (8%). (Although users on Douyin love to browse makeup, but the number of views ≠ sales)
Take cosmetics as an example to see the differences between Kuaishou and Douyin live streaming brands. The best-selling beauty brands on Douyin are mainly domestic brands, including "Perfect Diary", "Proya", etc. Makeup and facial care products account for the largest proportion; Kuaishou has the highest sales volume with many white-brand/own-brand products. Among them, Xin Youzhi carefully selected 6 products with the best sales, with a single live broadcast sales of 50,000 units (brand name: Xin Youzhi and zuzu).
In terms of price, products with low unit price (0-30 yuan) are favored by users of various short video platforms, while users on Douyin are more accepting of prices, and products of 50-200 yuan are also more popular; Kuaishou users prefer high-quality products , Low-priced products, 80% of the product unit price does not exceed 50 yuan.
Question 9: The evolution and prospect of the online celebrity live streaming model? (1）The people and goods are all in one place, and the "live broadcast agency + MCN + merchant + supply chain" four in one
The evolution of the online celebrity live streaming model is constantly approaching 货源.
1.In the era of 0, in addition to not having stable traffic, the anchor even needed to buy samples for live broadcast, including the early days of Wei Ya. Wei Ya has just started to do live broadcasts. In order to create brand appeal, no link fees or commissions are required, and she pays herself to make the lowest price on the entire network. In the era of 2.0, institutions entered on a large scale, and there were also new ways of playing such as "walking broadcast" and "jade base". In the 3.0 era, the head anchors have begun to penetrate the supply chain and connect the middle station system to other small and medium-sized anchors. Wei Ya's Qianxun has a total of more than 80 investment and product selection teams. On this basis, it has developed a middle-office system called "Lingke" (Link), which opens big-brand products and self-owned clothing to Taobao anchors. But in fact, even a head anchor like Wei Ya, who owns many self-made Taobao stores, controls everything from quality control to pricing, but the profit margin is surprisingly low, and the inventory also needs to be resold in the live broadcast room.
From this point of view, the live broadcast of Internet celebrities is more like a detonator for new brands, and it also promotes new opportunities for more domestic brands, ODMs, and OEM manufacturers, but how to go further and truly shape domestic brands, it is still necessary to time to verify.
1.0's live broadcast mode mainly includes store live broadcast mode, spike mode, and talent mode. The live broadcast mode of the store is that the anchor introduces the products on sale one by one, and its core competitiveness comes from the products on the air. The seckill mode is the most common. The anchor cooperates with the brand owner to help the brand owner drive sales. The Matthew effect is significant. The stronger the anchor's ability to bring goods, the more favored by the merchant, and the lower the discount. The anchor's ability to render the value of goods is the core.
The talent model is recommended by consumer opinion leaders with very deep professional knowledge in the field. 粉丝The trust of the anchor is high, and the conversion rate is often very high despite the small number of粉丝. 1.0 The online celebrity delivery model is the basic model, its importance is self-evident, and it has a high degree of universality. Since then, the model has evolved from this, and is more suitable for more sub-categories.
2.0’s live broadcast mode mainly includes overseas purchasing mode, base travel mode, origin live broadcast mode, price bargaining mode and gambling mode. Among them, the more interesting ones are the base broadcast, the live broadcast of the production area, and the haggling mode, which have miraculous effects on goods and fields that traditional e-commerce cannot reach. The base live broadcast is composed of the supply chain. The live broadcast is broadcast in each live broadcast base, and the live broadcast is easy to cause impulse orders, and there is a certain risk of return rate.
Currently the better base model is the brand base and the live broadcast of the industry belt. The bargaining model is very suitable for jewelry/antiques and other products, and jewelry/antiques are the top categories of fast-handed goods. After the anchor gets the jade, he will analyze the advantages and disadvantages of the product to 粉丝, and ask for those who are interested in buying it. 粉丝, the host haggles the price, and after negotiation, the host charges a certain purchasing fee and commission.
2.0’s live broadcast mode solves the problem of 货源 and product selection to a certain extent. The base and origin have sufficient supply of goods, and further extends to categories such as jewelry, jade, and even tractors.
3.0's live broadcast mode is C2M. According to the needs of 粉丝, the anchors use OEM or ODM to launch unique styles, and at the same time ensure the quality. Gather the production capacity of various clothing, beauty, food and other factories, and empower its anchors based on the C2M production model, gradually increase the proportion of live broadcasts of its own goods, and further improve the profit margin of the live broadcast room. For Li Jiaqi, who only brings goods for the brand, self-built supply chain seems to be a cost-effective choice for the time being. For the Weiya team, which has accumulated its own clothing supply chain, the importance of goods is self-evident.
Traffic, supply chain, and contract performance are the mountains that e-commerce cannot bypass. As the person in charge of Taobao Live has deduced, what will Taobao Live be like in five years?
There may be a species born in the live broadcast room, called a super live broadcast agency, which will appear by maximizing all three of "people-goods-field".
On the content side, the anchor system is complete, with both advertising companies + MCN + celebrity brokers; on the cargo side, independent supply chains, independent factories, self-made brands, and self-production replenishment, warehouse distribution capabilities; on the field side, Extensive experience in both e-commerce and offline. Like the early Tao brands, such as Zhang Dayi, Sydney and other celebrity shops, it is the dual identity of the celebrity and the shop. In the future, there may be more "live broadcast agencies + MCN + merchants + supply chain" four-in-one super live broadcast agencies. .
Question 10: From an investment point of view, how do you see the layout of Internet companies in the live broadcast of Internet celebrities? (1）Ali enjoys the "traffic grassland" exclusively, Toutiao and Kuaishou are ready to go, and there are likes to "fuel the flames"
The competition between platforms, the choice of different platforms by MCN or live broadcast agencies, and the choice of different platforms by Internet celebrities are the result of dynamic balance of multi-party games. The main basis for MCN or live broadcast agencies and Internet celebrities to choose a platform is the base and stability of the audience, as well as the realization efficiency of the delivery of goods.
Nowadays, when traffic has become a scarce resource, it is not difficult to occupy users' attention, and pure e-commerce platforms are obviously inferior to entertainment and social platforms in occupying users' attention. Therefore, a pure e-commerce platform needs a traffic platform for its promotion and diversion, and the Internet celebrities on the traffic platform also need to complete the realization.
For Internet celebrities, the ways to realize monetization on various traffic platforms include advertising (promotion), traffic sharing, live broadcast rewards or e-commerce delivery. E-commerce delivery is undoubtedly more efficient and stable at this stage. A more sexual way. And the place where the user's attention is is where the new Internet celebrity appears, and the Internet celebrity is "supported" by the user. Therefore, the place where new Internet celebrities are born is often the mainstream entertainment platform at each stage. The change from graphic to video to live broadcast has also made Weibo, Xiaohongshu, Douyin and Kuaishou respectively.
Weibo: Although Weibo, which started by introducing celebrities, has been severely impacted by other emerging entertainment methods, its huge stock user base is still one of the windows (probably not the main battlefield) for Internet celebrities to publicize. In June 2019, the number of head authors with 粉丝 greater than 20,000 or monthly readings greater than 100,000 on Weibo was 780,000, an increase of 32% compared with the same period last year, of which 粉丝 was greater than The number of big V users with 500,000 or more than 10 million monthly readings is close to 60,000. In the first half of 2019, 7.80,000 content authors earned income through e-commerce, and the proportion of big V users who published e-commerce content reached 30%.
However, the traffic of Weibo is mixed with a certain amount of "moisture". Since 2017, Weibo has begun to stuff users with "zombie fans", superimposing the mechanism of selective "swallowing" of Weibo (a user posting a Weibo is not pushed to All 粉丝, but are pushed to some 粉丝 according to a certain weight calculation).粉丝) is less likely to see this Weibo.
Weibo also lacks a live broadcast window at present. The monetization efficiency of the image and text + product link method is relatively low, and the volume of online celebrities bringing goods is not very large. Weibo may not be the best option if the brand is seeking direct revenue from sales.
ByteDance: Compared with "beautiful and delicate", the "interesting" component has been amplified by Douyin. When economic pressure, life pressure and work pressure are superimposed together, the user's priority for "fun and funny" will be mentioned before "pursuing high-end".
Li Jiaqi's popularity as a "lipstick brother" is not accidental. Douyin's centralized traffic support mechanism is destined to give excellent content the greatest traffic distribution advantage. However, it is precisely because it relies on algorithms and not on attention, the process of users continuing to swipe Douyin is also a process of continuous centralized distribution of traffic, and it is more difficult to form a stable 粉丝 group belonging to a certain person.
From the perspective of the platform as a whole, such a mechanism is more friendly to advertising monetization. And every creator who becomes popular on Douyin will try their best to monetize their traffic value privately as soon as possible, and it is best to become stable. E-commerce live streaming is undoubtedly fast and stable. Ways to build 粉丝 (loyal buyers) and increase retention and stickiness.
Make full use of the natural repurchase advantage of the category, and the stability of the income of content creators will be guaranteed to a certain extent. Therefore, it may be inevitable for Douyin to lead e-commerce platforms such as Taobao. When content creators use Douyin to become popular, they will switch to Taobao live broadcast. It is human nature to stabilize live broadcasts every day to obtain relatively stable income.
However, Douyin is still a very good platform for publicity, after all, it gives creators the possibility of becoming popular, there is no doubt about this. Returning to Douyin itself, because the closed loop of the transaction needs to be completed with the help of the e-commerce platform, the final benefit brought to Douyin may be far less than that brought to the e-commerce platform. If the components of the goods are too heavy, it may also affect the platform itself. entertainment properties.
Kuaishou: As the platform with the strongest ability to carry goods in the content community, it not only has top traffic anchors such as Sanda Brothers and Simba, but also a large number of medium and long-tailed goods leaders. Thanks to social distribution and fair algorithm distribution, Kuaishou anchors can have private domain traffic, giving the majority of medium and long-tail anchors the opportunity to commercialize and monetize.
According to Nielsen research, 84% of merchants obtain business transactions on Kuaishou, of which 42% have annual revenue of more than 100,000, and Kuaishou accounts for most of their transaction volume (over 56%). To earn more than 1068 yuan. In terms of categories, brands, prices, etc., Kuaishou brings goods and Pinduoduo have the same purpose. Food and beverages are the first, white-brand/own brands are the main ones, and low-unit price products are the main ones.
In the short term, Kuaishou will become an important starting point for Taobao's sinking and Tencent's vanguard to curb Douyin. Benefiting from the giant's "joint vertical and horizontal", traffic and commercialization capabilities are expected to be further strengthened. Since September, Kuaishou has officially cracked down on private transactions, and the proportion of Kuaishou celebrities in magic chopsticks and YouZan has increased rapidly. In the long run, it is inevitable for Kuaishou to go deeper into the e-commerce link and become a strong new force in the e-commerce field.
Alibaba: Alibaba has determined that contentization is one of the three major development directions of Taobao in the future, and Taobao Live Streaming is one of the measures to implement the strategy. In 2016, Taobao Live was launched. In 2018, in order to support Taobao live broadcast, Taobao launched the "Super IP" program, and Internet celebrities who can introduce traffic from outside Taobao will be allocated more internal traffic.
After all, the entertainment platform (graphics, video) is the process of "planting grass", then the completion of the closed-loop transaction is the result of "pulling the grass". The main advantage of Taobao Live is in Taobao itself, which lies in the huge volume of merchants. Business
Home-made broadcasts occupy a very important position in Taobao live broadcast. At this stage, the volume of live broadcasts has achieved small results. During the whole day of Double 11 in 2019, the transaction volume brought by Taobao live broadcast was close to 20 billion yuan, and more than 10 live broadcast rooms led the transaction to exceed 100 million yuan.
Alibaba e-commerce is building its own content ecological chain, weakening the inherent buying and selling relationship, and wants to increase the topic interaction and emotional connection between users and strengthen user stickiness. Then live streaming is indeed one of the ways to help. In order to make Taobao live broadcast quickly attract the attention of users, online celebrity live broadcast with goods can also be regarded as one of the shortcuts to the content ecology. Then, when considering the ultimate form of live broadcast delivery, it is more likely to be a situation where online celebrities and merchants coexist, but there will be a deeper intertwining.
Some of the top Internet celebrities may create their own brands and become merchants, while new Internet celebrities will become the top and then supplement the interest of the content for the merchants. The increment and imagination of the content creation components are far more than we thought. Large, it is basically unlikely to be wiped out by merchants. Whether it is in the short and medium term, or in the long term, online celebrity live streaming is an incremental highlight for Ali.
Tencent Holdings: When it comes to private traffic and the deep differentiation of the crowd, Tencent will not be absent. Relying on WeChat Official Accounts and Mini Programs, WeChat Live Streaming is growing rapidly. During the internal test period in March 2019, 4,212 people subscribed to the 1-hour live broadcast of the WeChat public account "Goddess Evolution", and the number of viewers was 1,363. The number of complete viewers accounted for 28% of the total number of viewers. The conversion rate of orders placed in the mini program store was 48.5%. On April 21, 2019, WeChat live broadcast was launched for public beta. Xiaobao Ma Ma’s live broadcast on May 7 attracted 13.10,000 people, with a turnover of 2.16 million yuan.
On May 29, WeChat announced that all official accounts can open live broadcasts, and can carry out mini-program e-commerce delivery, and the transaction link is finally completed within the mini-program.
In general, the traffic distribution of the official account is relatively high, and the proportion of attracting brand merchants is relatively low, and the amount of goods brought by e-commerce live broadcast is not large. We believe that in the medium term, WeChat live broadcast will help to improve the user stickiness of official accounts and mini-programs. As an incremental supplement to advertising monetization, it will help the creators of official accounts and mini-programs to survive.
But it is precisely because of the nature of private traffic that it is difficult for WeChat Official Accounts and Mini Programs to cultivate leading influencers. Compared with Ali's stock advantage of deeply cultivating business soil and Kuaishou's content and entertainment components, WeChat live broadcast is unflattering on both sides, and it is more difficult to achieve explosive growth.
China Youzan: As a SaaS service provider, Youzan has made some achievements in the commercialization of e-commerce SaaS in recent years. When considering the live broadcast of online celebrities with goods, Youzan, as a cooperation option for non-Alibaba e-commerce services, has obvious benefits. In addition to WeChat Mall, the cooperation between Youzan and Kuaishou achieved leapfrog growth in 2019.
In July 2018, Youzan got through with Kuaishou and launched the short video e-commerce solution "Kaishou Xiaodian". In the first half of 2019, Youzan achieved GMV of 1 billion yuan on the Kuaishou platform. On November 6, 2019, the live shopping carnival launched by Kuaishou E-commerce and Youzan launched the online celebrity PK competition. For the first time, Youzanke (Youzan's e-commerce marketing sub-commission promotion platform) model was used to conduct Internet celebrity. Sub-commission.
During the 2-day event, the total transaction volume of Kuaishou e-commerce Youzan merchants increased by 400% year-on-year, the order volume increased by 230%, and the total viewing rate suddenly exceeded 6 billion. There are more than 3,000 merchants who have sold more than 1 transaction on Kuaishou Live, and both the total GMV and the number of transactions have continued to grow rapidly.
Among them, Afu Essential Oil, Procter & Gamble, BESTORE, Handu Yishe, Zhou Hei Ya, Proya, Guerlain Beauty and other businesses joined Youzanke as suppliers. Youzan also covers Internet celebrities such as Brother Beiyuan, the Gaudí family, Barbie, Brother Beef, Lord Little Buddha, Hu Yanxue and Young Mistress Moximei. As a service provider, Youzan benefits from the overall development dividends of the Internet celebrity delivery industry.
(2）Risk Warning
Continued downside risks to the macro economy. Internet companies that use live broadcast, advertising, e-commerce, etc. as their main monetization models have a high correlation between their income and economics. If the macro economy continues to decline, the normal operations of Internet companies may be affected to some extent. Risk of technological change.从大周期角度上看，传媒互联网行业受技术驱动，技术变革可能导致个别公司被替代。移动互联网中行业流量衰退风险。互联网娱乐方式日新月异，短视频行业或其他现有细分行业用户增长或许乏力。政策监管风险。网红带货可能面临监管趋严的风险，导致个别公司或行业整体的正常经营受到一定影响。数据准确性差异。 MAU和DAU等相关数据通过自有技术监测获得，力求客观准确地反映业务表现，因统计方法和口径的差异，不排除与官方数据稍有出入。
